VZCZCXRO2491
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #0145/01 0311459
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 311459Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0089
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000145 
 
SIPDIS 
DRL FOR A/S POSNER 
FOR NEA, NEA/ELA AND DRL/NESCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2035/01/31 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: A/S POSNER ENGAGES WITH CIVIL SOCIETY, POLITICAL OPPOSITION 
 
REF: CAIRO 64; CAIRO 47; 09 CAIRO 2111; 09 CAIRO 1997; 09 CAIRO 1977 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Margaret Scobey, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. Key Points: 
  
-- (C) In meetings January 13-14, A/S Posner told activists and opposition politicians that the U.S. is seeking ways to advance human rights and political participation over the coming 12-18 months. 
  
-- (C) Activists urged the U.S. to end a "double standard" on  Israeli human rights violations, close Guantanamo and speak out 
against GOE repression. 
  
-- (C) Opposition political leaders agreed that prospects for 
significant political reform are slim while President Mubarak 
remains in office.  Most expected Mubarak to be a candidate in 
2011, and predicted the military would play a role in succession to 
ensure stability. 
 
-- (C) Former Presidential candidate Ayman Nour urged A/S Posner to 
press the GOE to stop interfering with opposition political  activity, and to allow him to work and travel. 
 
¶2. (C) A/S Posner told activists the U.S. is interested in how to 
advance human rights in Egypt over the next 12-18 months to improve 
people's lives.  He said the U.S. would pursue a traditional human 
rights agenda to address police brutality, restrictions on NGOs, 
freedom of expression and assembly problems, sectarian tensions, 
and the State of Emergency.  Posner noted that the U.S. is engaged 
on the coming Egyptian elections, and is working on issues of 
observation, participation and training.  Posner said that the UN 
Human Rights Council focuses disproportionately on Israel.  He 
described the Goldstone Report as flawed for not being able to 
include the Israeli government position, and called for Israeli and 
Palestinian domestic investigations into human rights violations 
during the Gaza war. 
  
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Civil Society Recommendations for the U.S. 
 
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¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX urged the U.S. to "practice what it preaches" on human rights by closing the Guantanamo Bay prison.  Bahgat called on the U.S. to end a "double standard on Israeli human rights violations," and expressed disappointment with the U.S. position on the Goldstone Report, which he asserted "makes it harder for us to 
cooperate with you" on human rights.  XXXXXXXXXXXX recommended the State Department human rights report assess that the situation in Egypt declined in 2009.  XXXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that many Egyptians believe the GOE has interpreted the current administration's relative "silence" on human rights and political issues as a signal of support. 
 
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Activists' Concerns and Criticism 
 
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¶4. (C)XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX said he was unsure of what current U.S. 
 
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human rights policy is.  He expressed concern over lack of U.S. 
public criticism of Syria for human rights violations, and U.S. 
support for Yemeni President Saleh while he represses his people. 
XXXXXXXXXXXXX expected increasing GOE repression leading up to the 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections.  XXXXXXXXXXXXX said he was initially optimistic when the Forum for the Future was launched that it would strengthen partnerships between Arab governments and civil society.  Instead, XXXXXXXXXXXXXX asserted, government-controlled NGOs have dominated the Forum.  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX noted that because of this phenomenon, he has not participated in the Forum since 2005. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX asked what the U.S. would do to 
address expectations that fraud would pervade the 2010 and 2011 
elections, and that Gamal Mubarak would inherit power from his 
father.  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that U.S. support for the GOE encourages it to repress the Egyptian people. He contended that President's Obama June 4 Cairo speech has not 
produced "any positive results" in Egypt. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX criticized the President's speech for "equating women throughout the region with each other," instead of recognizing their differences. XXXXXXXXXXXXXX complained that the U.S. denied him entry to the Guantanamo Bay prison to visit a prisoner he was trying to represent.  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX also complained that the Guantanamo prison is still open despite President Obama's commitment to close it.  XXXXXXXXXXXXX called for the U.S. to urge the GOE to make significant changes to open up political life. 
 
¶6. (C) Noting widespread dissatisfaction with political leaders on 
all sides, XXXXXXXXXXXXXX said the 2010 and 2011 elections represented the only opportunity for change, and pressed 
for more immediate action.  He called for greater internal and 
external pressure on the GOE to increase freedom of assembly and 
expression, lift the State of Emergency, improve election 
procedures with electronic voting, and allow registration with 
national identification cards. 
 
 
 
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Opposition Political Leaders on Egypt's Future 
 
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¶7. (C) At a dinner with opposition political party leaders, A/S 
Posner asked about prospects for democratic change.   Most expected 
Mubarak to run in 2011, leaving little room for change.   Wafd 
President Mahmoud Abaza and Democratic Front President Osama 
Al-Ghazali Harb said they were focused on preparing for a 
post-Mubarak transition, whenever that may occur.  In addition to 
their plans to participate in the 2010 parliamentary elections, 
opposition party leaders said they are pressing the GOE and the 
ruling party for a "national dialogue."  The leaders agreed that 
the military would play a significant role in any post-Mubarak 
scenario, and that constitutional provisions would be secondary to 
concerns about internal stability.  Leader of the un-registered 
Reform and Development Party Anwar El-Sadat asserted that the 
military would not support Gamal Mubarak's succession to the 
presidency, but that loyalty to President Mubarak kept it from 
acting to sideline Gamal now.  Abaza called Egypt's military 
"apolitical," but predicted the military would to step in to ensure 
stability if necessary. 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Regarding U.S. democracy promotion, the group called for 
continued support to civil society and "principled" pressure on the 
GOE.  However, Sadat noted sensitivities over "outside 
interference" in both the regime and opposition camps.  Al-Ghad 
Party Vice-President Wael Nawara suggested that external criticism 
should be matched with primarily economic "incentives" to encourage 
the government to commit to concrete democratic reforms. 
 
 
 
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Former Presidential Candidate Ayman Nour 
 
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¶9. (C) In a separate meeting, Al-Ghad party founder Ayman Nour said 
Egyptians were ready for change and seeking leadership.  "I'm  banned from participating in the coming elections, but I will be part of the political fight," Nour asserted.  Nour opined that the GOE's prevention of a liberal alternative to Gamal Mubarak strengthened the Muslim Brotherhood.  He underlined the impact of the security services' interference with opposition political activity, and advocated increased U.S. pressure to highlight GOE restrictions.  Nour urged A/S Posner to press the GOE to restore his own personal rights by allowing him to resume his work as an attorney or journalist, travel abroad and sell his assets.  Nour thanked A/S Posner for the Department's November 6, 2009 public statement expressing disappointment at the GOE's decision to prevent him from travelling to the U.S. 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) A/S Posner cleared this message. 
SCOBEY