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Embassy Mexico
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 001055 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT; 
NSC FOR DAN RESTREPO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VISIT TO MEXICO 
CITY, APRIL 16-17,2009 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and 
 (D) 
 
¶1.  (Confidential) Key Points 
--Despite the challenges presented by criminal violence in 
Mexico and the global financial crisis, President Calderon 
remains an effective and authoritative leader of an 
economically and politically viable nation.  He is genuinely 
committed to leave a legacy at the end of his term in which 
the rule of law prevails, Mexico,s criminal organizations 
are much-diminished and the benefits of Mexico,s wealth and 
trade are more widely shared among its citizens.  Recognizing 
our interdependence in each of these areas, he looks forward 
to building strategic alliances with us to advance common 
goals in the areas of security, commerce and sustainable 
economic development. 
--President Calderon will seek to engage you on a wide range 
of issues, but will focus most intently on the domestic 
security challenges facing Mexico from criminal violence. 
He will be greatly appreciative of U.S. cooperation in this 
area to date, but will press for even greater engagement on 
our  side of the border to address U.S. demand for illegal 
narcotics, reverse the upward trend of illegal arms passing 
into Mexico from the United States and stem illegal money 
flows to Mexico,s cartels. 
--Abroad (and to a traditionally inward-looking Mexican 
public), President Calderon has  promoted Mexico as an 
international player, asserted its place as a regional power 
and sought to burnish its image as a good place to do 
business.  President Calderon clearly sees the U.S.-Mexico 
partnership as having positive effects in the hemisphere and 
hopes to see the U.S. reassert its leadership in the region. 
 In this regard, he believes the upcoming Summit of the 
Americas is a key opportunity for you to outline the 
direction you plan to take your regional policy.   Mexico 
wants to take a low-profile approach as a problem-solver in 
Port-of-Spain to keep the summit on track.   Calderon will be 
supportive of your vision overall and could be an important 
partner in keeping grandstanding by certain regional leaders 
to a minimum. 
--Your visit will cement already solid relations between two 
countries with deep historic ties.   While close partners, 
however, Mexico and the United States continue to experience 
growing pains associated with expanding trade and broadening 
security cooperation.  Differences are  is manageable if we 
approach them in the spirit of cooperation among equals. 
President Calderon is eager to establish both a close 
personal and cooperative working relationship with you and 
will be seeking confirmation that you view him as a true 
partner. 
Law and Order 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Clearly Mexico is not an impending failed state, as 
some in the U.S. have described, but there are serious 
consequences of failure if President Calderon does not 
succeed in containing Mexico,s criminal organizations.   In 
all likelihood, Mexico,s federal system would be 
significantly undermined should the cartels retain and 
strengthen their presence in Mexico,s periphery.  Mexico,s 
political class and public, while currently supportive of the 
president,s drive against the cartels, could slip back into 
the complacent mindset that characterized the early decades 
of the drug-trade here.   Our bilateral law enforcement 
dialogue could revert  back to the antagonistic 
finger-pointing on crime and violence of previous years. 
Flow of drugs across our southern border would certainly 
increase, feeding drug-abuse and criminality in the U.S. 
Ultimately, violence and lawlessness along our common border 
would seriously impede the robust trade which has benefited 
both countries greatly in recent decades and reduce our 
ability to secure our southern border. 
¶3.  (SBU)  Recognizing these dangers, President Calderon 
remains committed to improving the country's security 
situation through aggressive law enforcement and reforms to 
the country's policing and judicial institutions.  Few 
observers believe there are viable short-term alternatives to 
his strategy of mounting joint military-law enforcement 
 
MEXICO 00001055  002 OF 004 
 
 
anti-narcotic operations which have drawn nearly 40,000 
troops into the fray.  Most here, however, pin their longer 
term hopes on the important security and justice reform 
packages President Calderon stewarded through the Mexican 
Congress in recent months which, if appropriately 
implemented, will help to modernize and restructure the 
country's justice system, as well as improve and better 
coordinate Mexico's disparate police forces. 
¶4.  (SBU) President Calderon needs ) and Mexico,s public 
and political class, by and large, appreciate ) the helping 
hand we have offered.   The Merida Initiative provides 
important material support to President Calderon,s strategic 
goals and, as important, demonstrates shared resolve in 
facing up to the challenges posed by organized crime.  While 
this initiative was originally conceived of as a three-year 
plan, it is increasingly apparent the Mexican government 
anticipates the kind of cooperation and assistance it entails 
will extend much longer.  Recent suggestions in the U.S. that 
Mexico is unable to govern its territory in the face of 
criminal violence, have focused attention on what Mexicans 
think the U.S. itself needs to do, as part of broader Merida 
cooperation, to help confront the common threat posed by 
organized criminal networks. President Calderon will surely 
raise his concern about the flow of arms south.  He will 
likely press you to actively follow up on the recently 
concluded bilateral arms trafficking conference with concrete 
actions, including reinstating the assault weapons 
importation ban which lapsed in 2004.  Similarly, President 
Calderon is committed to improving interdiction of laundered 
money which feeds cartel operations in Mexico and will 
encourage you to expand and compliment efforts on both sides 
of the border.  Finally, President Calderon is looking for 
the U.S. to rededicate itself to combating drug demand at 
home. 
Looking for Opportunities in Troubled Times 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Despite Mexico,s having slid into recession as a 
result of the world financial crisis, things could be worse. 
Its peso has regained strength against the dollar in recent 
weeks and its stock market has rebounded to a degree as well. 
 Sound macroeconomic reforms enacted in recent years have 
significantly buttressed Mexico,s ability to withstand the 
impact of downturns in the U.S. and the world. Still, a 
stimulus package put together in recent months by the 
President may not be enough to pull Mexico out of recession 
in the near term. 
¶6.  (SBU) Fully 82 percent of Mexico,s exports go to the 
U.S. and we remain by far the country,s largest source of 
foreign investment.  Mexico,s long-term prospects are tied 
to ours and President Calderon is particularly mindful of the 
positive impact NAFTA has had on both our economies.  He is 
keen to avoid nasty trade disputes that might undermine 
commitment to the treaty in both countries.  While he 
believes recent events such as the cessation of the 
cross-border trucking model program mark a step backwards 
towards protectionism, he will focus his discussion on ways 
we can move the economic relationship in positive directions. 
 He has said he wants to build on NAFTA,s accomplishments 
and would consider strengthening side agreements in labor and 
the environment, if doing so did not undermine the existing 
treaty.  With other delegations he has recently raised 
Mexico's interest in expanding NADBank's mandate to include 
development projects distant from the border.  Calderon will 
certainly query you on the status of an alternative trucking 
program, and explore how we might constructively approach 
labor and environmental issues in the context of NAFTA. 
¶7.   (SBU) An outside-the-box, but clear-headed thinker, 
President Calderon is looking for new areas in which we might 
expand our partnership.   For example, he believes North 
America can demonstrate greater leadership on the 
environment; recognizing your interest in this theme, he may 
seek your partnership to combat climate change, deforestation 
and industrial waste and foster the development of clean and 
sustainable energy sources.  Focusing on cooperation on 
climate change and development of clean energy allows us to 
deepen our energy relationship while avoiding long-standing 
Mexican sensitivities about its oil resources.  However, 
 
MEXICO 00001055  003 OF 004 
 
 
there may be one sensitive area President Calderon will want 
to address by asking you to consider negotiating a bilateral 
treaty on potential cross border oil reservoirs.   Without 
committing to an agreement, you may want to assure him that 
we are committed to managing potential transboundary reserves 
equitably. 
¶8.  (SBU) Calderon may also want to examine ways we can build 
alliances in areas like healthcare.  The U.S. suffers from a 
shortage of health care workers and health care costs are 
spiraling.  Mexico produces a surplus of health care workers 
and its health care costs are comparably much lower. 
President Calderon has spoken of tapping synergies both in 
terms of labor and services to reduce costs, improve service, 
and expand flexibility.  He may choose to frame his 
discussion of immigration issues in these same terms, looking 
for a revival and expansion of our H-2 temporary worker 
program as an opportunity to marry Mexico,s surplus of 
low-wage semi-skilled workers to the U.S. shortage of such 
manpower.  He will be interested in hearing about your 
strategy to pursue immigration reform in the U.S. in the face 
of the severe economic downturn. 
¶9.  (SBU) Calderon remains interested in making the 
U.S.-Mexico border more secure, but also more competitive. 
He may raise the need for greater investment in port of entry 
structures along both sides of the border.  The Mexican 
President may also suggest we review usage of shared water 
resources like the Colorado River. 
Beyond the Bilateral Relationship 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) President Calderon highly values the unique U.S. ) 
Mexico relationship and the steps he has taken during his 
presidency to strengthen it.   He also seeks a larger role 
internationally for his country.   President Calderon will 
use Mexico,s two year tenure on the council to expand 
Mexico,s growing engagement in the world, and encourage his 
own countrymen to become more actively interested and 
involved in world affairs.    Mexico,s tenure has so far 
been positive.  We work closely and constructively with its 
UN team both in Mexico City and New York, and Mexico,s 
president will be receptive to your encouragement that Mexico 
take on a more active global role and strengthen its 
diplomatic partnership with us. 
¶11.  (SBU) Regionally, Mexico views itself as a key leader 
and Calderon,s actions during his tenure have been designed 
to capitalize on Mexico,s large commercial and cultural 
footprint in the region.  While deeply suspicious of 
leftist-populism, he has avoided the bitter feuding his 
predecessor waged with Cuba and Venezuela and sought to 
normalize relations with the former.  He is deeply concerned 
with the spiral toward lawlessness in Central America and 
seeks our cooperation, through the Merida Initiative and 
other programs, to bolster the security and stability of his 
southern neighbors. 
¶12.  (C)  Just as President Calderon seeks to engage Mexico 
with the rest of the world, he wants to see the U.S. more 
engaged in the region.   He views U.S. leadership as highly 
positive (and has lamented that he feels somewhat isolated as 
one of the few democratically elected regional leaders who is 
genuinely committed to the free market and to strengthening, 
rather than undermining, democratic institutions).    He 
believes your presidency will help burnish the U.S.,s image 
and credibility at as time when empty populism has captured 
the spotlight in the hemisphere.  The upcoming Summit of the 
Americas is a key opportunity for you to define the terms of 
your engagement.  While worried about the possibility of 
grandstanding by Venezuela,s Hugo Chavez, and the issue of 
Cuba being inserted divisively into the agenda, President 
Calderon is optimistic that your participation in the Summit 
will help establish a pattern of positive cooperation between 
you and your regional counterparts.   You can expect him to 
be supportive of your goals for the summit. 
¶13.  (U) Mr. President, all of us in the Embassy community 
look forward to your visit to Mexico with great excitement 
and anticipation.   If there is anything I or any member of 
my staff can do to make your visit a success, please let me 
know.   Bassett 
 
 
MEXICO 00001055  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
--- 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT