R 041338Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2510
INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 
AMEMBASSY CARACAS

73752
2006-08-04 13:38:00
06MEXICO4310
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL

R 041338Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2510
INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 
AMEMBASSY CARACAS 


C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 004310 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PRESUMED PRESIDENT ELECT 
CALDERON 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza Jr for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Presumed President-elect Felipe Calderon 
told the Ambassador 8/2 that he thought the Electoral 
Tribunal could decide as early as this week to recount a 
certain number of ballots, a gesture Calderon thought was 
reasonable in light of the ongoing Democratic Revolution 
Party (PRD) protests in Mexico City.  A final certification 
of the presidential election could take until late August, he 
speculated.  Calderon said his role was to be patient and 
prepare himself for the presidency.  He planned to attend 
President Uribe's inauguration in Colombia, but also looked 
forward to an early visit to the United States, perhaps 
including some cities with large migrant populations. 
Calderon is looking to engage on a broad agenda with the U.S. 
and to avoid the trap of making migration the dominant 
bilateral issue.  Calderon's comments led us to believe his 
transition planning is in the very early stages.  He dropped 
one comment that indicated he has not been in close contact 
with President Fox since the election.  End Summary. 
 
The Waiting Game 
 
¶2.  (C)  Presumed President-elect Felipe Calderon requested 
the 8/2 meeting with the Ambassador, primarily to express 
thanks for President Bush's early and friendly congratulatory 
call.  (Note:  Calderon met 8/1 with the Spanish Ambassador, 
and expected to meet with the ambassadors of other countries 
offering congratulations in the course of the week). 
Calderon expressed his regret about the ongoing PRD protests 
(which have blocked key arteries leading to the Embassy's 
neighborhood)  and some frustration that PRD candidate Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was refusing to acknowledge 
defeat.  While his situation was difficult, Calderon said, 
every day he was more convinced a few weeks of patience was 
better than just one day with AMLO in Los Pinos.  Calderon's 
tracking polls indicated that on a daily basis AMLO was 
losing support and Calderon was gaining.  The PRD's attacks 
on election institutions had done some damage, but as AMLO 
became increasingly inconsiderate and obstructive the 
institutions regained credibility. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Calderon reported there were some indications that 
the Electoral Tribunal could make a preliminary ruling this 
Friday that would allow for a recount of some ballot boxes in 
areas where the results were extremely close, or where the 
law permitted a recounting of the ballots.  He estimated that 
some 6,000-8,000 ballot boxes could be recounted under this 
ruling (there are a maximum of 750 votes per ballot box). 
The recount could begin immediately, with results available 
within a matter of days.  Calderon's expectation was that the 
recount results would not vary dramatically from those 
originally reported.  This would be enough to satisfy some in 
the PRD and broader public who were calling for a recount, 
Calderon surmised, but probably not AMLO.  The Tribunal could 
make its final certification of the election results in late 
August, but AMLO could continue protests (although not 
necesarily his occupation of Paseo de la Reforma) through 
President Fox's annual report to Congress (September 2) and 
inauguration day (December 1) -- or beyond. 
 
Transition 
 
¶4.  (C)  Calderon stressed his willingness to work 
collaboratively with the U.S. on a broad range of issues, and 
did not want to get stuck in a single-issue debate on 
migration.  He expected to differentiate his Administration 
from that of President Fox, but at this meeting didn't 
provide many specifics.  Calderon planned to attend Colombian 
President Uribe's inauguration in Colombia next week, and was 
considering a trip to U.S. cities with large migrant 
populations, starting with Los Angeles.  He acknowledged the 
Ambassador's point that such travel should be scheduled with 
careful attention to U.S. electoral calendar and the debate 
on migration.  Once Calderon's election was certified, he 
hoped as well to meet President Bush and senior U.S. 
officials.   While the Ambassador pressed for details on 
transition priorities and personalities, Calderon wasn't 
particularly forthcoming, suggesting his transition planning 
is still in its early stages.  The Ambassador stressed that 
we were looking forward to a close working relationship with 
the Calderon team as soon as they were ready. 
 
Region 
 
¶5.  (C)  Calderon volunteered his concern over the role 
Chavez was playing in the region, while noting that Castro's 
sudden absence from the scene -- be it permanent or temporary 
-- offered an opportunity to undermine Chavez' role. 
Calderon said he understood Chavez was increasingly active in 
Mexico.  Calderon international affairs adviser Arturo 
Sarrukhan stated that Castro had duodenal cancer and was 
likely in the final stages.  All agreed it was an 
unprecedented situation leading to a probable transition. 
The Ambassador pointed out that the region should not permit 
a Castro-Castro succession scenario to be considered 
legitimate. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Sarrukhan separately stated that one reason Calderon 
had agreed to go to Colombia was to consult with the GOC on 
the increasing ties between Colombian and Mexican narcotics 
traffickers.  During his attendance at Garcia's inauguration 
in Peru, Sarrukhan said, Peruvian leaders had also stressed 
their concern that Mexican traffickers were playing a larger 
role in the Andes generally.  Calderon was extremely 
concerned about the damage the cartels were doing to Mexico, 
and wanted to take strong measures against them. 
 
Comment 
 
¶7.  (C)  Comment:  Calderon was convinced he won legitimately 
and resigned to waiting out the Electoral Tribunal's 
ratification of his election -- an outcome he did not appear 
to doubt.  He appeared in a paid announcement on national 
television the evening of August 2 to stress his conviction 
that election institutions had acted appropriately and that 
his victory should be recognized.  Caldeorn let slip a 
comment that it was hard for him to reach President Fox -- an 
indication that the two are not working closely together 
during this period of uncertainty. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA